A friend of the Blog analyzes the race for the 32nd state Senate district where incumbent Craig Wilcox (R) is facing challenger Karen Battaglia (D):
Wilcox vs Battaglia could be a close election
Background info
Karen Battaglia is leaning into the fact that she is a nurse, mom, and grandma. It is a strong biographical profile for a politician.
Eight years ago, Lauren Underwood defeated four-term congressman Randy Hultgren in a district that many people erroneously believed was safe for Republicans. Underwood leaned heavily into the fact that she was a nurse. (Whether she really was a nurse or not is secondary to the fact that she did have a nursing degree and she successfully marketed the nurse image to the public.)
Unlike Underwood, Battaglia is a mother. This could make her even more formidable than Underwood given that most single and childless women vote for Democrats anyway, but Battaglia may connect more easily with mothers since she is one.
Battaglia is of an age where she is not seen as too young or too old for office whereas Underwood may have faced a bit of resistance from people who thought she was too young.
Like the old 14th congressional district that Hultgren lost, many people view Wilcox’s state senate district as “safe” for Republicans; however, people in-the-know will tell you that is not true and that Democrats are aggressively targeting Wilcox because they believe it is a pickup opportunity. It is evident that Democrats are going after him by campaign finance numbers.
Quarterly reports
During the last quarterly report — the second quarter of 2026 — Wilcox started with $88,242.99. He raised just $650 and spent $7,731.17 leaving him with $81,161.82.
Battaglia started with $13,127.56. She raised $51,976.35 and spent $2,512.99 leaving her with $62,590.92.
While Wilcox had the edge in terms of cash on hand at the end of the quarter, there are warning signs for him.
- Battaglia blew Wilcox out of the water on fundraising for that quarter — $51,976.35 compared to $650.
- Battaglia is rapidly catching up to him. See what they had at the beginning vs the end of the quarter. Battaglia is closing the gap and doing it rapidly.
- Battaglia is being more frugal with her money. The counter-argument is that a politician should want to spend, so stats about “burn rates” are misleading, but having a lower burn rate means Battaglia can spend her money closer to the election. Money spent in June does not convert the same number of votes as money spent in September. People don’t have such good memories. Juliana Stratton was laying very low in her campaign and it appeared she was on track to lose to Raja Krishnamoorthi but then she made a last minute blitz and won by a comfortable margin.
A-1 reports
This is where things really start looking rough for Wilcox. Since the last quarterly report, Wilcox filed an A-1 to report $6,000 on July 17, another for $5,506.25 on July 31, another for $4,406.24 on August 16, another for $1,000 on August 18, another for $2,006.25 on September 4, and one for $1,592.40 on September 5. That is a total of $20,511.14. This is as of September 12.
Battaglia reported $1,000 on July 8, $2,329.92 on July 16, $6,000 on July 30, $2,329.92 on August 3, $15,000 on August 13, $2,329.92 on August 14, $2,000 on August 21, $20,000 on August 24, $1,000 on August 31, another $2,329.92 on August 31, $20,000 on September 3, $75,000 on September 4, $88,587.60, and $15,000 on September 11. That is a total of $252,907.28.
In terms of large donations that have shown up in A-1 reports since June 30, for every dollar Wilcox has raised, Battaglia has raised $12.33.
A donation from the Lake County Democratic Women has not shown up yet, but it is a possibility. The group endorsed her in late August. They have $66,707.59 as of the end of the second quarter and they’ve received $6,500 in A-1 reports since then.
It’s also possible they send less than $1,000 which would not show up in A-1 reports and it leads me to another important topic.
Extrapolating small dollar donations
The next quarterly report is due on October 15. Between July 15 and October 15, we only have access to A-1 reports which show large dollar donations defined as $1,000 or greater. We don’t have a clear picture of small dollar donations, but we can look at the most recent quarterly reports and extrapolate.
Looking at non-itemized contributions from individuals, Wilcox raised $50 between April 1 and June 30. Non-itemized contributions to Battaglia from individuals during that same period equaled $1,525.97. By this metric, Battaglia outraised Wilcox 30.52 to 1 last quarter.
Itemized individual contributions for Wilcox equaled $0. Nada. Battaglia received $1,100.
Obviously, the third quarter is different from the second quarter, but the current trend puts Wilcox at a huge disadvantage.
Why 2026 is not 2022
Some people will downplay all of these warning signs showing up in the fundraising numbers and say it doesn’t matter because the district is “red.” There are problems with this view and why people who support Wilcox should take this race seriously instead of downplaying it.
Wilcox has only run in this current district once which was in 2022. The situation in 2022 was much different because Republicans were motivated by the COVID restrictions which were still happening at the time — two and a half years after the pandemic was declared and people were told, “Two weeks to flatten the curve.” Pritzker ran the state through emergency order which he kept renewing, and he did this for years. There was a crime spike in 2021. Businesses shut down. We were going through one of the largest wealth transfers from the poor and middle class to the wealthy in American history. Academic performance suffered, mental health declined. We also knew that much of what we were told early on in the pandemic turned out to be false. The point is there was an enormous backlash to what was going on. Some of this was at the local and state level, but there was also backlash to President Biden.
Open borders. Threats to Trump supporters. Threats to people who would not take the rushed and ineffective vaccine. Obvious mental decline. A botched pullout in Afghanistan. The highest inflation in over 40 years. Gaslighting the public that if the government spends more money, inflation will get better but also that inflation isn’t that big of a deal. High gas prices. This all worked in Republicans’ favor; they regained the U.S. House of Representatives that year despite the fact that the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade which energized the pro-choice side.
Anecdotally, I used to see a lot of Darren Bailey yard signs in 2022. This year I’m not seeing any Republican signs. In general, the party of the president does poorly in midterms. In 2022, the benefactor was the Republican Party since Joe Biden was president. Now, Democrats are poised to benefit as they did in 2018 when Lauren Underwood and Sean Casten defeated Randy Hultgren and Peter Roskam while Trump was president. Just because a Republican won in 2022 does not guarantee they will win in 2026.
In 2022, Wilcox defeated his opponent 55.87% to 44.13%. That sounds like a lot but it doesn’t consider enthusiasm and turnout. A combination of Republicans not showing up to vote, Democrats being fired up to vote, and independents swinging from the Republican to Democrat side could tip the election. In 2016, Hultgren won 59.3% to 40.7%. Two years later, he was defeated, losing 47.5% to 52.5%. Battaglia doesn’t need that big of a shift to win and there is evidence that a shift is indeed happening.
Turnout during the primaries was way up for Democrats and way down for Republicans. Over 29,000 Republicans voted in the 2022 primary in McHenry County. In 2026, that number dropped to about 15,000. For Democrats, about 15,000 voted in the 2022 primary in McHenry County. In 2026, that number was over 24,000. That’s basically an inversion. Was the huge shift in primary votes the canary in the coal mine?
Battaglia is not Barbato
Wilcox faced a candidate named Allena Barbato in 2022. Barbato’s only quarterly report for 2022 was for the fourth quarter. Her donations and spending were so low that she didn’t bother filing prior to that report, and legally she did not need to. According to the single quarterly report she filed in 2022, she raised less than five thousand dollars and spent less than four thousand dollars.
Barbato raised under five thousand dollars; Battaglia has raised over three hundred thousand dollars.
Conclusion
Wilcox is not in the same political fight he was in four years ago. The situation is much different. Anybody who says Republicans do not need to worry about his district is not looking at the election carefully.
I’m not saying people should go on Kalshi or Polymarket and bet on Democrats flipping the seat, but based on my research I also would not be shocked if it happened
Democrats are very serious about flipping it. Are Republicans serious about defending it?
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Additionally, Americans for Prosperity Action has made at least tewo mailings into the district on Wilcox’ behalf.
Last week there was a telephone poll, presumably for the Democrat, since Wilcox is smart enough not to waste money on polling when he has so relatively little of it.
And being able to turn out a thousand or some “No Kings”demonstrators in McHenry for two years running gives little reason for optimism.
