From John Lopez:
Both Jim Oberweis and Catalina Lauf in Serious Contention as Fundraising Success Draws Attacks from Leading Candidate
A new poll the first week of August shows Catalina Lauf surging in Southwest Florida’s Congressional District 19 (FL-19):.
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When we last looked at a poll taken in mid June, Jim Schartzel and Jim Oberweis were at the head of the pack.
Now Schwartzel and Lauf are in the lead, with Oberweis running third, and 25% undecided.
The last poll had Lauf at 5%.
The ten-candidate Republican field has clearly narrowed to a final four, and based on the attacks the leading candidate, media executive and lifelong Southwest Florida resident Jim Schwartzel, 50, both Oberweis and Lauf, along with former New York Congressman Chris Collins,76, are his targets.
The Schwartzel campaign launched this commercial in late July proving Oberweis, Lauf and Collins are, from his campaign’s perspective, the leading candidates who can beat him on August 18.
On August 4, a super PAC (Southwest Florida First) aligned with Schwartzel launched this artificial intelligence (AI) generated ad:
You can watch the whole ad here.
You can see a positive ad for Schwartzel below:
Below is a positive ad for Oberweis:
Here are the finances as of the end of March:
And here is what they look like now (through July 29):
Schwartzel is the hometown favorite being the only candidate in the primary field who’s a lifelong resident of Southwest Florida. Through July 29, Schwartzel had raised over $2 million, with $1 million coming from a loan to himself. Since July 29, Schwartzel has injected another $150,000 into his campaign, per FEC Form 6 filing (within the last 3 weeks prior to a federal primary election, congressional candidates must submit an F6 report to the FEC for donors and/or loans individually contributing $1,000 or more, similar to an Illinois A-1 filing).
With the remaining candidates in the field not native to Southwest Florida, and as Schwartzel’s commercial targets Oberweis, Lauf and Collins, all have moved into Southwest Florida in the past 5 years (Lauf in past 2 years), some in the Republican primary electorate are concerned about all of the “out-of-state carpetbaggers” running for Congress, including two former members of Congress like Collins and former North Carolina Congressman Madison Cawthorn, being opportunists.
Brief examination of why both Oberweis and Lauf are surging to the point of threatening the frontrunner’s path to victory on August 18:
Catalina Lauf
While 2020 and 2022 IL congressional candidate Catalina Lauf, 33, has raised an impressive nearly $1.7 million through July 29, what has placed Lauf on the map to potentially win FL-19 is the support, since late May, of the Rand Paul-aligned Protect Freedom super PAC, which has supported Lauf’s candidacy with over $5 million through independent expenditures including TV, digital and direct mail support. Throw-in an additional $500K+ through independent expenditures from her super PAC, Love America Uphold Freedom (LAUFpac), and over $6 million in independent expenditures have been spent supporting Lauf’s candidacy, in addition to her campaign’s spending.
Through July 29, Lauf had not contributed any of her own money to her campaign, but an FEC Form 6 filing on July 31 revealed she broke that streak with a $25K contribution to her own campaign.
In addition to strong financial support, Lauf has impressive endorsements from both national and local figures including the mid July endorsement from the Associated Builders and Contractors Florida Gulf Coast Chapter as well as U.S. Senator Jim Banks (R, IN), Congressman Burgess Owens (R, UT-04) and Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna (R, FL-13).
Luna has announced she’ll be campaigning alongside Lauf at an August 15 rally in Naples.
Combined with a large (227K) social media following, frequent appearances on FOX News and an active group of volunteers, Lauf clearly a threat to the frontrunner Schwartzel to the point the opposition research has pulled her questionnaire response in 2022 to the Illinois Technology and Manufacturing Association showing Lauf opposed the Trump tariffs during the President’s first term. That oppo research was obtained beyond a simple Google search, and will likely be used against her by Schwartzel’s campaign, or through an affiliated PAC.
Finally, Lauf’s long-awaited book hit the streets on August 4, two weeks before the primary.
On August 6 as the latest poll was being published, Lauf’s campaign launched its most direct attack on Schwartzel to date concerning how his media company handled the COVID vaccinations in July of 2021, with receipts, which can be viewed here.
Jim Oberweis:
Primarily by self-funding his congressional campaign with nearly $5 million of his own money, Oberweis declared for the FL-19 seat in March of 2025, and has been running TV commercials over the past year and a half. The media campaign is paying off, with ads including this one featuring an AI-generated Oberweis.
In spite of being 80 years old, Oberweis is showing the senior citizens electorate of Southwest Florida he still can serve in elected public office. The Oberweis Foundation has been active in Florida for years preceding his 2021 move to Florida, and Oberweis recently received the endorsement of the Life in Naples magazine.
Oberweis has not lost a Republican primary since the 2006 Illinois gubernatorial primary, so Oberweis’ candidacy puts that 20-year Republican primary winning streak on the line.
Do not be surprised if Oberweis pulls off the upset on August 18, but the Schwartzel campaign has taken Oberweis’ stance in his 2020 campaign against Congresswoman Lauren Underwood on immigration as supporting “amnesty”, and Oberweis has faced the attacks on TV from a Schwartzel-aligned PAC.
Conclusion
While Oberweis better positioned to win on August 18 than Lauf, if Lauf takes an overly aggressive, true fighter approach against frontrunning Schwartzel, Lauf could win on August 18. The latest polling released last week shows Lauf surging with less than 2 weeks out. Lauf has claimed she’s the fighter President Trump needs in Congress, and Schwartzel’s attacks on Lauf gives her the opportunity to prove she’s a fighter.
Lauf cannot win without going all-out negative on Schwartzel on the airwaves, and her attacks need to be taken to TV in the remaining 10 days of the primary campaign.
In the past 48 hours, U.S. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R, LA) announced his endorsement of Schwartzel late Friday afternoon on social media. Late Saturday, August 8, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R, OH) endorsed Schwartzel.
Will President Trump make an endorsement in the FL-19 Republican primary in the next 10 days?
Should be an entertaining final 10 days of the Republican primary campaign for FL-19 in Southwest Florida,
