The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability issues a report this time of month.
I’ll share some highlights:
- The state’s unemployment rate has improved over the past year, but job creation has been limited, suggesting an economy slow to build momentum.
- At the beginning of August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that preliminary estimates showed nonfarm payrolls growing by only 73,000 in July. While still positive, this was well below the pace seen at the end of 2024 and the early months of The national unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, but this stability masks underlying weakness because the labor force itself has contracted since the start of the year. Reduced immigration under new federal policies is likely a major factor in this decline.
- The state’s unemployment rate stood at 4.6% in July, above the national figure but down from 5.1% a year earlier. This improvement, however, is less about job creation and more about a shrinking labor force, likely influenced by demographic trends and reduced immigration.
- Headline CPI fell from 3.5% in June to 2.7% in July, and Core CPI dropped from 3.8% to 3.0%. This easing was driven by lower motor fuel costs and price declines in commodities and nondurable goods.
