From the Darren Bailey campaign:
New Poll Shows Darren Bailey/Aaron Del Mar ticket with commanding lead in GOP Primary
Louisville, IL – New internal polling of likely Republican primary voters confirms that Darren Bailey is the clear frontrunner in the Illinois Republican primary for Governor.
Bailey holds a commanding 49-point lead and enjoys a massive name identification advantage with a 59% favorable image. Bailey’s support spans the Republican electorate, reflecting broad alignment with voter priorities on affordability, public safety, education, and government accountability.
Even at this early stage, he continues to garner significant enthusiasm and loyalty, positioning him well ahead of the rest of the field.
As Republican voters continue to learn more about Bailey’s record and policy agenda, his support strengthens further, indicating meaningful upside as the campaign progresses. The data shows a unified electorate coalescing around a candidate who clearly represents Republican values and leadership.
Overall, the polling makes clear that Darren Bailey enters the 2026 primary as the leading choice of Republican voters and is well positioned to continue building momentum as the race moves forward.
Republican Primary Poll Snapshot:
If the Republican primary election for Governor were held today, the ballot stands as follows:
- TOTAL Bailey: 57%
- Dabrowski: 8%
- Heidner: 9%
- Mendrick: 4%
- Undecided: 23%
Bailey holds a commanding lead over the rest of the field combined. No other candidate consolidates meaningful support, and no alternative coalition is evident at this stage of the race.
Conclusion
The Illinois Republican primary for Governor is consolidating early. Darren Bailey leads by a wide margin, aligns closely with the priorities of Republican voters, and has substantial room to grow as more voters become familiar with his agenda.
The data strongly suggests that Bailey is well positioned to secure the Republican nomination and unify the primary electorate around a message of affordability, safety, and reform.
Methodology
Osage Research conducted a survey of 412 likely Republican primary voters in Illinois using live phone calls and text-to-web interviews. The margin of error for the Republican oversample is ±5.66%. Quotas were set for age, gender, and geography to reflect the anticipated 2026 Republican primary electorate.
