Last polling results by M3 Strategies shows the following:
“Jim Schwartzel is leading by about 4 points among Republicans who have already cast their ballot, taking 30.8% of the early vote to Lauf’s 26.2%.
“But boosted by a recent late Trump endorsement, Catalina Lauf is leading by double digits among those who have not voted yet but are likely to vote, 33.3% to 21.5%,” a polling memo reads.
“The ratio of early voters to election day voters will determine the winner of this race.
“If the ratio holds at 65% early / 35% election day electorate, the overall ballot stands at Lauf 28.7%, Schwartzel 27.5% — and a heavier election day turnout moves the race toward Lauf, while an electorate dominated by early ballots favors Schwartzel.”
Jim Oberweis was at 14%.
The 1.2-percentage-point margin for Lauf in the overall standing falls well within pollsters’ 3.4-point margin of error.
