Poll Shows Raja Still Leading in Race for Democratic Party U.S. Senate Nomination

From Rod McCulloch:

As the leading Democratic candidates for US Senate participated in the first official debate of the primary, Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi leads the field with 32.1%, with Lt. Governor Juilana Stratton in second place with 20.7%, and Congresswoman Robin Kelly in third place with 11.4%.

In the previous Illinois Poll conducted in November, Krishnamoorthi led with 29.1%, Kelly was in second with 22.3% and Stratton was in third with 17.7%.

Kelly is the only candidate of the three leading candidates not to be on television with a heavy advertising buy.

There are seven other candidates in the race.

None of those seven polls above 2.4%. Combined, the seven have 5.6%.

Fully 30.2% remain undecided.

According to the poll, Krishnamoorthi’s support ticked up only 3.1%, within the margin of error of the poll, despite spending millions of dollars on early advertising.

Stratton, the second term Lt. Governor, increased her total 3.0% as she recently hit the airwaves with her first television commercials.

Kelly, in her seventh term in Congress, saw her support cut in half from the previous poll.  

The results are part of the latest Illinois Poll, conducted January 21^st-Jan 25^th. It is a semi-monthly survey conducted since 2001 by Victory Research, an independent polling company based in Chicago.

The poll of 806 likely Illinois general election voters has a margin of error of 3.45% and was conducted by live callers.

Respondents answered using landlines (123) and cell phones (683). Victory Research has no polling client in the US Senate race. www.politicsillinois.com @ILpollster.

Krishnamoorthi has a healthy lead over Stratton and Kelly, the two other leading candidates, in Suburban Cook County (40.9%-22.8%-15.5%, in the Collar Counties (33.0%-13.6%-11.0%) and in Downstate Illinois (34.0%-9.9%-8.6%).

Lt. Governor Stratton, who has been endorsed by Governor JB Pritzker, leads in Democratic vote-rich Chicago with 30.4%, Krishnamoorthi receives 24.1% and Kelly 10.4%, in Chicago, according to the poll.

In a sign of how volatile the race could be, respondents were asked if they had definitely made up their mind about the Senate race, or if there is still a chance they could change their mind. In addition to the 30.2% of respondents who said they were undecided in the original head-to-head question, 58.4% of respondents said they could still change their mind on which candidate they vote for.

The results indicate that Stratton and Kelly are cutting heavily into each other’s potential support.

When asked which candidate would be their second choice, 64.1% of Robin Kelly’s supporters said they would pick Juliana Stratton, while 66.5% of Stratton’s supporters would pick Kelly as their second choice.

Only 22.8% of Kelly’s voters would pick Krishnamoorthi, as their second choice, while 17.4% of Stratton’s would vote for Krishnamoorthi if the Lt. Governor was not on the ballot.

Governor JB Pritzker’s endorsement and monetary support for his Lt. Governor could pay dividends for his former running mate, according to the poll.

Pritzker, very popular among Democratic primary voters, has an approval rating of 79.8% from the party faithful.

Of those respondents who said they hold a strongly favorable opinion of Pritzker, Stratton holds a healthy lead, with 48.0%, and 29.8% for Krishnamoorthi and Kelly in single digits with 8.2%.

If the race becomes razor tight toward the end, the race could be decided by the small percentage of Democratic voters who are favorable toward President Donald Trump.

According to the poll, 7.9% of primary voters hold a favorable opinion of the Republican President. While the percentage is small, if the race is decided by one or two points, these voters could tip the scales.

According to the poll, the “Trump Democrats” do not have a clear favorite, with 67.2% saying they are undecided in the Senate race.