From the Tax Foundation:

Larger Tax Refunds Are Coming This Filing Season 

Tax season begins next week: When taxpayers file their 2025 returns this year, many will see noticeably larger refunds than in recent years—up to $1,000 higher on average. 

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) reduced individual income taxes for 2025, but because the IRS didn’t adjust withholding tables after the law passed, workers generally continued to withhold more taxes from their paychecks than the new law required.  

• As a result, instead of gradually receiving the benefit of the tax cuts through higher take-home pay during the year, most taxpayers will receive it all at once when they file their returns. 

$600 average tax cut: Overall, we estimate the major tax changes for 2025 will lead to an average tax cut of $611, or a 0.8 percent increase in after-tax income. Middle and upper-middle income groups will see the largest share of filers with a tax cut.