From a Friend of McHenry County Blog:
Del Mar and Bailey: It might be true, but is it good?
Politico, The Illinoize, Tom DeVore, and others reported yesterday that Darren Bailey and Aaron Del Mar are toying with the idea of running for Governor and Lt. Governor.
(I am told that it is a done deal, but we shall see.)
It wasn’t clear who would lead the ticket.
Many say it is difficult to picture Bailey not wanting to be the center of attention, but stranger things have happened in Illinois.
The rumor itself, regardless of the details, may be legitimate.
Del Mar threw fuel on the rumor fire when he posted this late last night.
I am skeptical that combining two polarizing individuals within the Illinois Republican Party will create a unified ticket, or that combining one controversial candidate from southern Illinois with another controversial candidate from Cook County equals a strong ticket, or that pairing up two candidates who lost a statewide election last cycle (2022) will now be winners.
I believe that is the logic of those who support such a ticket, but I am not sure it works like that.
For example, when Bruce Rauner won, his running mate did not live on the other side of the state to balance representation out regionally. She was not picked because of her strong bona fides with the conservative grassroots to counter his quasi-libertarianism. (Many say she was conservative but that’s not the point — to most she was unknown.) Same with JD Vance to President Trump. (He was arguably chosen to bring in money from Big Tech.) Sometimes a running mate doesn’t really bring any voter group in to create a “coalition,” but rather the idea is for them to just not do embarrassing things and behave somewhat respectfully. With Del Mar and Bailey both being lightning rods of media attention, that formula would not apply.
My thinking is that the IL GOP needs a “clean break” and should pick a new candidate that didn’t lose last cycle. They should pick people with less baggage too.
On the other hand, the Illinois Republican Party struggles to get attention which makes them appear weak and irrelevant. This ticket of Del Mar and Bailey, regardless of who is whose running mate, would certainly make headlines regularly.
The person who was rumored to be Del Mar’s running mate, Kristina McCloy, is young and attractive and conservative but not ready for prime time based on her media appearances. She was too easily baited into rage when she appeared on the Smoke-Filled Room show and that was barely a hostile environment. She doesn’t have the composure nor policy chops. Being unknown statewide was perhaps not detrimental. Juliana Stratton and Evelyn Sanguinetti were unknown statewide but still won. All things considered, it is understandable why Del Mar would look for someone else.
Del Mar is a realist and deal maker who respects fame and power. He understands that Bailey, for all his faults, is already well known in Illinois and, while controversial, he does have many fans. So perhaps the deal makes sense after all, and Del Mar is certainly teasing that it will happen with his recent Facebook post.
I happen to think a Del Mar Bailey ticket is stronger than a Bailey Del Mar ticket (in a general election) but opinions vary. Voters have no control over that. It would be up to those two men to sort out. I think either one could happen and would not want to take bets on which one is more likely.
An X factor here is whether such a ticket could get big donor money. Bailey got big donor money through Richard Uihlein in 2022. That money was handled by Dan Proft but there was some kind of falling out between Proft and Bailey. Plus, Del Mar has taken shots at Proft and Uihlein’s “gatekeepers.” In a recent podcast, Del Mar appeared open to the possibility of bypassing such gatekeepers and accepting money from Uihlein, but that doesn’t mean it will happen. Point being, it’s not clear big donors would want to get involved. However, Bailey and Del Mar are not the only Republican candidates who might struggle with money. The same could be said about any Republican. Especially when your opponent is JB Pritzker.
As to whether it is Bailey Del Mar/Del Mar Bailey or something other than that, the choice will be up to Republican primary voters on March 17.
Other gubernatorial candidates include James Mendrick, Ted Dabrowski, and Joe Severino. They too have their strengths and weaknesses.
In conclusion, everybody knows 2026 is an uphill battle for Republicans. The keys to winning a general election will be
-Motivating the base
-Unifying the party
-Bringing in swing voters
To do that, they need the right messaging. That is tricky. If they figure out how to do that, they will need to amplify the right messaging. To amplify the right messaging, they will need money. Lots of money.
It is a big puzzle and many things have to fall into the right place if Illinoisans are to replace JB Pritzker. It is an uphill battle, but it is not impossible.
As to the primary, a Bailey Del Mar or Del Mar Bailey ticket would be difficult to beat in the primary. I would go so far as to say if that does happen, maybe the only way to prevent that ticket from winning the primary would be if Ted Dabrowski can convince James Mendrick to be his running mate or vice versa. Mendrick has already chosen a running mate but might want to consider scrapping the whole thing and joining forces with Dabrowski if Bailey and Del Mar team up.
Once again, the primary is March 17.
