This information comes from State Rep. Jeff Keicher:
If Illinois was “average.”
Since before I was elected, I’ve been talking about how Illinois’ excessive tax burden and overregulation have driven people and businesses out of our state, contributing to higher unemployment and lost wages.
Over the past several months, I’ve been working with the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (CGFA) to show how our population, job opportunities/wages and tax base would have grown if Illinois were just average compared to our neighbors.
(Reminder: Illinois’ unemployment rate has consistently been higher than the national average for years. April 2025 – U.S. 4.2%, IL 4.8%.) [Emphasis added.]
Here is my latest “average” update from CGFA:
How large would Illinois’ economy be if it had grown at the same pace as the U.S. since 2000?
To address your additional request related to economic growth, the Commission compared current dollar estimates for gross domestic product (GDP) for both the U.S. and Illinois. In 2000, the U.S. economy had a current dollar GDP of $10.2 trillion, while Illinois’ economy totaled approximately $486 billion.
In 2024, the U.S. GDP was estimated at $29.2 trillion, which equaled a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%. Illinois, on the other hand, grew at a slower CAGR of 3.6% to just over $1.1 trillion in 2024.
Applying the U.S.’s 4.5% growth rate to Illinois’ 2000 economic base of $486 billion would grow Illinois’ economy to just under $1.4 trillion in 2024.
This would be approximately $261 billion, or almost 23% larger than Illinois’ current economy. [Emphasis added.]
Provide a table with the differences in population, employment, and GDP if Illinois had grown at the same rate as the U.S. since 2000.
The data is clear: our state is missing out on $261 billion in economic activity and nearly a million more residents… because we are not average.
If the state is serious about digging out of our financial hole, ending the out-migration, and simply being “AVERAGE” – then tax relief and creating opportunities for economic growth are by far the most effective things we can do to achieve these goals.
