Wednesday, March 22, 2006
Cost Per “Yes” Vote in District 300
Cost Per “Yes” Vote in District 300
When I predicted the cost for every “Yes” vote in District 300 would be $7.50 per vote, I said
22,033 voted in the bond referendum and 22,939 voted in the tax rate hike referendum. (These figures exclude the portion of the district in Cook County, where results cannot be read on County Clerk David Orr’s web site.)
The tax hikers had a really good voter identification and get out the vote effort, while the opponents had none.
I also assumed that each side would get 10,000 votes, that is, that the election would be 50-50.
In reality, the tax hikers got 12,233 people to support the bond issue and 11,962 to vote “Yes” on the tax rate hike.
So, instead of getting a total of 20,000 votes, as I guessed, the tax hikers got 24,295 votes.
When I divide 24,295 into the $200,000 available to be spent (what I can find reported on the State Board of Elections web site since the state of 2005), the tax hikers’ cost per vote comes out to $8.23.
That’s in the range of what the Democrats paid East St. Louis voters during the 2004 presidential election. They paid $5-$10, but, of course, they wanted every vote on the ballot, so their cost per vote was lower.
Of course, the District 300 tax hikers didn’t put cash into people’s pockets…unless you want to count the District 300 employees who will undoubtedly end up with more cash in their pockets as a result of the 55-cent tax hike.
When I predicted the cost for every “Yes” vote in District 300 would be $7.50 per vote, I said
Let’s guess that 20,000 people will vote. That’s 1/3 more than voted at the 2002 primary and 2/3 of those who turned out at the 2000 general.I was about 10% low on my turnout guess.
22,033 voted in the bond referendum and 22,939 voted in the tax rate hike referendum. (These figures exclude the portion of the district in Cook County, where results cannot be read on County Clerk David Orr’s web site.)
The tax hikers had a really good voter identification and get out the vote effort, while the opponents had none.
I also assumed that each side would get 10,000 votes, that is, that the election would be 50-50.
In reality, the tax hikers got 12,233 people to support the bond issue and 11,962 to vote “Yes” on the tax rate hike.
So, instead of getting a total of 20,000 votes, as I guessed, the tax hikers got 24,295 votes.
When I divide 24,295 into the $200,000 available to be spent (what I can find reported on the State Board of Elections web site since the state of 2005), the tax hikers’ cost per vote comes out to $8.23.
That’s in the range of what the Democrats paid East St. Louis voters during the 2004 presidential election. They paid $5-$10, but, of course, they wanted every vote on the ballot, so their cost per vote was lower.
Of course, the District 300 tax hikers didn’t put cash into people’s pockets…unless you want to count the District 300 employees who will undoubtedly end up with more cash in their pockets as a result of the 55-cent tax hike.
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Cal,
A plus or minus 10% variance is quite reasonable on this volatile ballot question. I'm very impressed! Your considerable experience in politics makes my dart board turnout prediction look pretty sad.
As to the cost per vote - in Chicago votes used to be available for a scarf, a box of candy, or a trash bin. When I was a child mmmmble mmbble years ago, listening to adults say it's a privilege to vote and then watching them turn around and "sell" their votes certainly provided a mixed message.
There is no mixed message in school district tax increase elections. People who make profit from the system/industry will do anything and everything they can to get the tax increases passed instead of investing their money and time to fix the broken financial practices and management philosophies that hurt our children, families/residents.
Now that the election is history, I'm trying to predict:
1. Whether or not the board/district will try to find a way to wiggle out of the (promised) one year only 55 cent boogie that they said will keep them from using the nasty loophole that would allow them or a future board to access more than promised.
2. Whether or not raises/benefits will be frozen in a meaningful way. (That was very hard to type without laughing.)
3. What wording will be used in an apology to residents for committing them to a tax increase where for every dollar they pay, 60 or so cents gets sent elsewhere in the state.
4. How administrators and board members will be able to keep a straight face and look saddened if/when more of their projections crash and burn.
In District 158 the students were taught that truth is often selective. They were taught that they could be used by the very people parents tell them to trust.
My prediction on that lesson is that the school industry taught them how to get away with it and how to do it to someone else in the future.
If I was a teacher or administrator I'd have a hard time being proud of THAT "lesson".
A plus or minus 10% variance is quite reasonable on this volatile ballot question. I'm very impressed! Your considerable experience in politics makes my dart board turnout prediction look pretty sad.
As to the cost per vote - in Chicago votes used to be available for a scarf, a box of candy, or a trash bin. When I was a child mmmmble mmbble years ago, listening to adults say it's a privilege to vote and then watching them turn around and "sell" their votes certainly provided a mixed message.
There is no mixed message in school district tax increase elections. People who make profit from the system/industry will do anything and everything they can to get the tax increases passed instead of investing their money and time to fix the broken financial practices and management philosophies that hurt our children, families/residents.
Now that the election is history, I'm trying to predict:
1. Whether or not the board/district will try to find a way to wiggle out of the (promised) one year only 55 cent boogie that they said will keep them from using the nasty loophole that would allow them or a future board to access more than promised.
2. Whether or not raises/benefits will be frozen in a meaningful way. (That was very hard to type without laughing.)
3. What wording will be used in an apology to residents for committing them to a tax increase where for every dollar they pay, 60 or so cents gets sent elsewhere in the state.
4. How administrators and board members will be able to keep a straight face and look saddened if/when more of their projections crash and burn.
In District 158 the students were taught that truth is often selective. They were taught that they could be used by the very people parents tell them to trust.
My prediction on that lesson is that the school industry taught them how to get away with it and how to do it to someone else in the future.
If I was a teacher or administrator I'd have a hard time being proud of THAT "lesson".
4piggybanks2,
Let me just try to take a look at what you are saying. You are saying that all people are going to do what they can to get more money? Or is it that the systems are corrupt, and should be fixed?
Well, they are your opnions, and opinions are not a bad thing. I think anyone who thinks an opinion is a bad thing should be sent away.
The only thing I do not like, and I am stressing the do not like part, is the way that people act, or don't act, on their opinions.
You have a problem with the system, dont just stay on this site, or tell someone about it, go and do something. I mean get up out of the chair and do something.
Even though you think that you can do a lot about complaining about the system so that others will work for you, but it doesn't work that way.
It is almost like someone who is over 18 and has the right to vote. If they don't vote, then they shouldn't complain about who might be in office, or who was beaten out of it. Take an opinion, and act on it.
moving on
Do you live in our district?
By live I mean did you buy a house, pay property taxes, have a couch that is in a room that is considered district 300, and look down the street and see kids and neighbors that work or attend a district 300 school.
What is your fascination with comparing us to 158?
There have been comparisons to other school districts that have cut these programs and property values went down, but these are not the same people.
I trust the people working for us, and why do I trust them?
Let me tell you why....
They are leading our district, through the good and the bad times.
They LIVE in our district, which means they will be paying the increases, but for a GREAT cause, human capital.
Human capital= items and tools such as knowledge used to create, make, come up with, and produce products of all sorts.
Human capital in this case the education of district 300. This is about getting the students a better learning environment(lower student per teacher ratio per classroom), providing them with activities and groups that will allow them to get into colleges and further their education to start their own career, and preparing them for the real world.
Lets see, you are not a teacher or an administrator, and neither am I, but i know for a FACT, that teaching is a difficult job.
"Before you judge someone, walk a mile in their shoes."-a great quote that fits with your "statements".
Well, I am glad this passed. This is going to pay in the long run, with higher property values, and a better education system than ever before. This is going to attract many people, and will show that the community members of district 300(the people who live in D300)care about the 18,500+ students and their futures.
Don't criticize before you become a member in D300, and a teacher or administrator. then, and only then, will you TRULY know what it is like, so then you can stop your complaining!
Thank God this passed!
YES YES!!!!
Let me just try to take a look at what you are saying. You are saying that all people are going to do what they can to get more money? Or is it that the systems are corrupt, and should be fixed?
Well, they are your opnions, and opinions are not a bad thing. I think anyone who thinks an opinion is a bad thing should be sent away.
The only thing I do not like, and I am stressing the do not like part, is the way that people act, or don't act, on their opinions.
You have a problem with the system, dont just stay on this site, or tell someone about it, go and do something. I mean get up out of the chair and do something.
Even though you think that you can do a lot about complaining about the system so that others will work for you, but it doesn't work that way.
It is almost like someone who is over 18 and has the right to vote. If they don't vote, then they shouldn't complain about who might be in office, or who was beaten out of it. Take an opinion, and act on it.
moving on
Do you live in our district?
By live I mean did you buy a house, pay property taxes, have a couch that is in a room that is considered district 300, and look down the street and see kids and neighbors that work or attend a district 300 school.
What is your fascination with comparing us to 158?
There have been comparisons to other school districts that have cut these programs and property values went down, but these are not the same people.
I trust the people working for us, and why do I trust them?
Let me tell you why....
They are leading our district, through the good and the bad times.
They LIVE in our district, which means they will be paying the increases, but for a GREAT cause, human capital.
Human capital= items and tools such as knowledge used to create, make, come up with, and produce products of all sorts.
Human capital in this case the education of district 300. This is about getting the students a better learning environment(lower student per teacher ratio per classroom), providing them with activities and groups that will allow them to get into colleges and further their education to start their own career, and preparing them for the real world.
Lets see, you are not a teacher or an administrator, and neither am I, but i know for a FACT, that teaching is a difficult job.
"Before you judge someone, walk a mile in their shoes."-a great quote that fits with your "statements".
Well, I am glad this passed. This is going to pay in the long run, with higher property values, and a better education system than ever before. This is going to attract many people, and will show that the community members of district 300(the people who live in D300)care about the 18,500+ students and their futures.
Don't criticize before you become a member in D300, and a teacher or administrator. then, and only then, will you TRULY know what it is like, so then you can stop your complaining!
Thank God this passed!
YES YES!!!!
D300 resident
I am also a d300 resident. I voted against the Ed fund referendum. The question I have for you is how is this going to make the district better than it was this year? How do your childeren benefit in way that makes it better than this year? The answer is simple..it does not. It makes it better than what you were threatened with..bigger classes, trailers, split shifts, no extra cirriculars. It doesn't give you smaller classes or any tangible promise of improvement.
What it does fund is an easier time for the administration to get through the teachers union contract. Or so it seems... the union wil be looking for payback.
The problem here is D300 admin. They just do not seem to have fiscal sense. Remeber what Comrade Arndt said.. if the ed fund does not pass and the bonds issue does, build the schools and leavem empty. Does that make sense to you? He would have us paying $9 million a year in interest to watch empty new building sit and decay. That is the fscal mentality we have here. They spent $12 million of your dollars on a new DeLacey center last year that they did not ask your concurrence on. They "found " the money in the building fund after building the buildings you agreed to several years ago..$12 million.. and were did it come from.. well they just did not factor the buildings they were going to sell when they built new ones into the financials of the bond issue and holy cow.. amiracle happened.
Do you think any of the problems that caused the deficiet snook up on us? No, all the laws that are faulty (tax cap, delay in property ttaxes on new homes, etc) have been on the books for years. It's a failure of D300 admin (Comrade Arndt again) to plan for it.
So bask in the glow of your victory, cause Comrade Arndt has already said he will be back in 2010 for more!
By the way.. how much has your house increased these last five years we have not had the tax revenue for schools? How can you predict "This is going to pay in the long run, with higher property values, and a better education system than ever before." As I cited, you were not promised better schools, you were promised they wouldn't execute thioer make the schools worse penalty program.
As for criticism, I have every right to question and critique the public officials who are supposed to be stewards in the public trust you righteous ..........
I am also a d300 resident. I voted against the Ed fund referendum. The question I have for you is how is this going to make the district better than it was this year? How do your childeren benefit in way that makes it better than this year? The answer is simple..it does not. It makes it better than what you were threatened with..bigger classes, trailers, split shifts, no extra cirriculars. It doesn't give you smaller classes or any tangible promise of improvement.
What it does fund is an easier time for the administration to get through the teachers union contract. Or so it seems... the union wil be looking for payback.
The problem here is D300 admin. They just do not seem to have fiscal sense. Remeber what Comrade Arndt said.. if the ed fund does not pass and the bonds issue does, build the schools and leavem empty. Does that make sense to you? He would have us paying $9 million a year in interest to watch empty new building sit and decay. That is the fscal mentality we have here. They spent $12 million of your dollars on a new DeLacey center last year that they did not ask your concurrence on. They "found " the money in the building fund after building the buildings you agreed to several years ago..$12 million.. and were did it come from.. well they just did not factor the buildings they were going to sell when they built new ones into the financials of the bond issue and holy cow.. amiracle happened.
Do you think any of the problems that caused the deficiet snook up on us? No, all the laws that are faulty (tax cap, delay in property ttaxes on new homes, etc) have been on the books for years. It's a failure of D300 admin (Comrade Arndt again) to plan for it.
So bask in the glow of your victory, cause Comrade Arndt has already said he will be back in 2010 for more!
By the way.. how much has your house increased these last five years we have not had the tax revenue for schools? How can you predict "This is going to pay in the long run, with higher property values, and a better education system than ever before." As I cited, you were not promised better schools, you were promised they wouldn't execute thioer make the schools worse penalty program.
As for criticism, I have every right to question and critique the public officials who are supposed to be stewards in the public trust you righteous ..........
Hello d300 resident -
This is a blog. It's a cyber place to comment/debate/question/learn.
Resume's aren't required. However, considering this is the Internet, any resume' you might read has a good chance of being bogus anyway.
My backside isn't glued to a chair. Neither is my mind. I am active in ways that are productive. Some people change the world with a hammer. Others design the hammer, etc.
D158 is the poster child for referendum and school business "baloney". A lot of pain was dealt out in D158 to people of all ages. D300 isn't an entity untouched by identical attitudes/philosophies/practices. The leaders in D300 led it where it is today. D158's PAC leader was paid by Advance 300 as a consultant, etc. Pretty much the same campaign with different colors.
The "predictions" I'm trying to make are based on watching boards go back on their words as soon as the public eye turns away and based on the fact that truth has a way of coming out no matter what the numbers is on a district's letterhead.
Educators knocked themselves off the pedestal I placed them on - when I saw what was behind the facade. The facade was built of school PR illusions. I still applaud great teachers..though they are few and far between. I also believe people who should not be teachers should be removed immediately. I no longer believe in the school industry. There's a big difference.
I've faced off with a teacher who told me they are above the rest of the workers and people who were hurt by the economic hits from 9/11, two wars, etc. She isn't the only one with this belief.
I know of board members who think Freedom of Speech only belongs to people who agree with them.
Administrators have lied to my face wearing their public smiles.
I'm tired of unnecessary surveys to gauge public wants and needs. These are a waste of money and only used to give the public the idea they are involved. How many surveys does a school system have to have before they know "lower class sizes", "more extracurriculars", yada, yada, yada. Mini-group coffees and chats are designed to create personal relationships and sway people to one side like time share sales dinners. "Other thinkers" become intruders to be dealt with not listened to.
So, there you go. Thoughts cast into space to be ignored, believed, or something in between.
Predictions about the board keeping its promises? About explaining how money doesn't stay in the district? Etc.
Time will tell.
As to fixing a broken system - we might do well to look to other countries that are doing a better job educating their children and creating well-rounded human beings.
Continuously trying to reinvent the education wheel in each little American district kingdom is simply ego driven and dumb. Do what works first and tweak it later. Time doesn't stand still. Kids grow old waiting.
This is a blog. It's a cyber place to comment/debate/question/learn.
Resume's aren't required. However, considering this is the Internet, any resume' you might read has a good chance of being bogus anyway.
My backside isn't glued to a chair. Neither is my mind. I am active in ways that are productive. Some people change the world with a hammer. Others design the hammer, etc.
D158 is the poster child for referendum and school business "baloney". A lot of pain was dealt out in D158 to people of all ages. D300 isn't an entity untouched by identical attitudes/philosophies/practices. The leaders in D300 led it where it is today. D158's PAC leader was paid by Advance 300 as a consultant, etc. Pretty much the same campaign with different colors.
The "predictions" I'm trying to make are based on watching boards go back on their words as soon as the public eye turns away and based on the fact that truth has a way of coming out no matter what the numbers is on a district's letterhead.
Educators knocked themselves off the pedestal I placed them on - when I saw what was behind the facade. The facade was built of school PR illusions. I still applaud great teachers..though they are few and far between. I also believe people who should not be teachers should be removed immediately. I no longer believe in the school industry. There's a big difference.
I've faced off with a teacher who told me they are above the rest of the workers and people who were hurt by the economic hits from 9/11, two wars, etc. She isn't the only one with this belief.
I know of board members who think Freedom of Speech only belongs to people who agree with them.
Administrators have lied to my face wearing their public smiles.
I'm tired of unnecessary surveys to gauge public wants and needs. These are a waste of money and only used to give the public the idea they are involved. How many surveys does a school system have to have before they know "lower class sizes", "more extracurriculars", yada, yada, yada. Mini-group coffees and chats are designed to create personal relationships and sway people to one side like time share sales dinners. "Other thinkers" become intruders to be dealt with not listened to.
So, there you go. Thoughts cast into space to be ignored, believed, or something in between.
Predictions about the board keeping its promises? About explaining how money doesn't stay in the district? Etc.
Time will tell.
As to fixing a broken system - we might do well to look to other countries that are doing a better job educating their children and creating well-rounded human beings.
Continuously trying to reinvent the education wheel in each little American district kingdom is simply ego driven and dumb. Do what works first and tweak it later. Time doesn't stand still. Kids grow old waiting.
4piggybank2:
I agree. We should look at the education systems in other countries.
Why don't you hop a plane and get a first hand look and report back to us in a few years?
Dave Bishop
West Dundee
I agree. We should look at the education systems in other countries.
Why don't you hop a plane and get a first hand look and report back to us in a few years?
Dave Bishop
West Dundee
Dave -
Again with the insightful, fact filled, hard hitting analysis of the issues. Gosh I am glad your vote counts the same as everyone elses.
Can't wait to see your next installment..
Again with the insightful, fact filled, hard hitting analysis of the issues. Gosh I am glad your vote counts the same as everyone elses.
Can't wait to see your next installment..
Why thanks Mr. Bishop for your vote of confidence that my studying abroad would help enlighten our educators and financial staff. However, my property taxes prohibit travel that falls into the luxury category.
Also, however, there's no need for me to repeat work that's already been done. Yes, yes - studies have already been done and results revealed to the public.
The studies came out after electricity changed the world and took most people out of the darkness.
Information is available on television (that little lighted box thingie in most homes), on the Internet, in libraries, etc.
Yes, it's the latest thing. Knowledge instead of avoiding issues. It's all the rage among people who think.
Hmmm - issues versus verbal sparring to prove self-perceived superiority? Who would have thought that one day cyber space could actually be a "place" to encourage human beings to use their brains to make a joyful noise ......instead of the sounds that make 7 year olds giggle.
All kidding aside, the America I love and believe in has lost its way in some areas and shouldn't be above seeking new ideas and processes. When his ideas were "shunned" Demming taught Japan how to compete and even beat our country. Many of America's inventions come from the minds of people not born on her shores. A closed mind limits progress.
Give it a rest Mr. Bishop. Put your ego and attitude to good use instead of creating tension. The world is already heavy with censorship and drone-think.
Turn on the light Mr. Bishop.
There is no need to duel if the common goal is a better world.
Also, however, there's no need for me to repeat work that's already been done. Yes, yes - studies have already been done and results revealed to the public.
The studies came out after electricity changed the world and took most people out of the darkness.
Information is available on television (that little lighted box thingie in most homes), on the Internet, in libraries, etc.
Yes, it's the latest thing. Knowledge instead of avoiding issues. It's all the rage among people who think.
Hmmm - issues versus verbal sparring to prove self-perceived superiority? Who would have thought that one day cyber space could actually be a "place" to encourage human beings to use their brains to make a joyful noise ......instead of the sounds that make 7 year olds giggle.
All kidding aside, the America I love and believe in has lost its way in some areas and shouldn't be above seeking new ideas and processes. When his ideas were "shunned" Demming taught Japan how to compete and even beat our country. Many of America's inventions come from the minds of people not born on her shores. A closed mind limits progress.
Give it a rest Mr. Bishop. Put your ego and attitude to good use instead of creating tension. The world is already heavy with censorship and drone-think.
Turn on the light Mr. Bishop.
There is no need to duel if the common goal is a better world.
4Piggybanks2 -
Do you think Dave and his cronies understand what alot of people have to give up to pay this increase? Do you think they ever considered what most of us get for what we have to give up? mmm..... let's say it's $500 per year...
For some one with a fixed income, it may have to be that $40 dollar a month co-payment on a medication. What do they get as a benefit - nothing.
For theat family just making ends meet, they can just cut $40 a month out of the food budget. Let's see, just don't have dinner on Sunday's. Heck we can all stand to loose wieght right ? Heck there's a benefit to them.
For the parent who works two shifts to meet the mortgage payment and put food on the table, they can maybe just not go to the movies once a month? Oh gosh, I forgot they don't do that, they give the money to thier child so they can be in soccer and little league. Oh well you can get hurt in those , so the kid can just give them up.
Yeah, I can see how the proponents would not worry about the impact. Seems simple enough (or at least to the proponents). These should have been easy choices, right?
I wonder what Comrade Arndt will give up to pay his tax bill? Oh yeah, he will probably get a bonus fo rgetting the referendum passed, and be able to easily pay his increase....
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Do you think Dave and his cronies understand what alot of people have to give up to pay this increase? Do you think they ever considered what most of us get for what we have to give up? mmm..... let's say it's $500 per year...
For some one with a fixed income, it may have to be that $40 dollar a month co-payment on a medication. What do they get as a benefit - nothing.
For theat family just making ends meet, they can just cut $40 a month out of the food budget. Let's see, just don't have dinner on Sunday's. Heck we can all stand to loose wieght right ? Heck there's a benefit to them.
For the parent who works two shifts to meet the mortgage payment and put food on the table, they can maybe just not go to the movies once a month? Oh gosh, I forgot they don't do that, they give the money to thier child so they can be in soccer and little league. Oh well you can get hurt in those , so the kid can just give them up.
Yeah, I can see how the proponents would not worry about the impact. Seems simple enough (or at least to the proponents). These should have been easy choices, right?
I wonder what Comrade Arndt will give up to pay his tax bill? Oh yeah, he will probably get a bonus fo rgetting the referendum passed, and be able to easily pay his increase....
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